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	EFA Policy and Strategy Scenario
	EFA Policy, Strategy And Financing Assumptions
	The Primary Financing Policy Scenario

EFA Policy and Strategy Scenario » Up

The broad financing assumption is that the ESP and ESSP financing plan up to 2005 will provide the foundation for accelerated progress towards EFA goals and targets over the period 2006-15. This approach retains policy consistency over the next 15 years while recognizing that strategies and programs, as well as financing strategy, may have to be modified as the reforms evolve and progress.

In order to examine the realism and sustainability of the proposed reforms, programs and targets, the Ministry developed a scenario. In particular, the scenario analysis has focused on the resource implications of the different scenarios, within reasonably conservative long-term projections of GDP growth over the next 15 years and incremental increases in current and capital expenditure for education as a share of GDP. These fiscal assumptions project forward from the Governments MTEF 2003-5.

EFA Policy, Strategy And Financing Assumptions » Up

The main policy objectives of the medium term ESP/ESSP reforms, leading to long-term achievement of EFA can be reiterated as follows:

» Assuring equitable access to basic and post basic education through increased Government support for basic education and teacher training, alongside increased community/parental and private involvement in financing and managing pre-primary and post basic education; Government support for pre-primary and post basic education will target students for poor families to ensure equity of opportunity.

» Enabling quality and efficiency improvement through sustained increases in non-wage operational spending targeted on instructional materials, basic education supplies, teacher development and quality monitoring and governance reforms: efficiency measures will focus on more efficient deployment of teaching and non-teaching staff and improved internal efficiency (e.g. increased progression, retention and transition rates).

» Capacity building for decentralization through enabling increased operational autonomy of all education institutions, increased delegated authority to provinces and districts in planning and managing education services and strengthened monitoring and audit systems.

In formulating the EFA projections over the period 2006-15, these basic policy principles have been retained. In particular, the expansion of community/parental and private sector involvement in all sub-sectors apart from basic education and teacher training is projected to grow significantly after 2006.

The Primary Financing Policy Scenario » Up

Against this background, the following financing scenario is based on different assumptions about the role of Government in financing and/or enabling education policy implementation. The broad assumptions for this scenario can be summarized as follows:

» Broad Assumptions: Role of Government will be to focus almost exclusively on assuring full access to Basic Education in order to ensure full participation of children from the poorest families in nine years of high quality education, delivered in the most efficient manner. Essentially this is the optimal pro-poor scenario as set out in the PRSP and in the MoEYS presentation on education and poverty reduction at the Consultative Group meeting in 2002. The role of Government in pre-primary and non-formal education is to enable equitable participation of the poorest while shifting most of the cost burden to parents and the private sector. It is assumed, however, that pre-service and in-service teacher development and quality assurance/regulation will be the responsibility of Government.

A key policy direction implied in the EFA National Plan is to enable growth of parental/community and private sector involvement in the financing of education before and after the basic education cycle of grades 1-9. In the short/medium-term period, implementing these financing policies will take time.

The projected enrollment growth over the period 2001-20, including participation levels at EFA 2015 is an important element in the proposed financing scenario. It is also assumed that progression rates will continue to rise until 2010 alongside a gradual decline in dropout rates at all levels over the same period. Effectively by 2010, progression and transition rates across all primary and secondary school grades will be 100 per cent. Grade 1 net and gross intake rates will converge over the 10-year period. In order to capture school dropouts back into mainstream formal and non-formal re-entry and equivalency programs are projected at roughly 100,000 per annum over 2002/6 gradually falling to minimal levels as dropouts reduce.

For pre-primary education (now transformed into ECCE), it is assumed that the priority will be to secure attendance of children under six years old in new community based and financed playgroup programs. However, the projected target is to capture around 75 per cent of five- year-olds in ECCD programs by 2015 leveling off up to 2020. This is consistent with current early childhood education policies within the Government reform program, which propose that MoEYS role will be enabling rather than as a prime service provider.

The above discussion presents a mixture of risks and opportunities for the efficient use of resources, especially classrooms and teachers. The risk is significant over supply of teachers and classrooms for primary education, alongside potential undersupply at secondary level over the next 15 years. However, a number of substantial opportunities for access and quality improvement are potentially available including:

» Elimination of double shift teaching and classroom use in primary and lower secondary schools by 2010 with consequent increases in instructional hours.

» Assuring efficient teacher supply and deployment across grades 1-9 through the retraining and redeployment of primary and lower secondary school teachers from 2004/5 onwards.

» Up until 2005, selective provision of additional primary schools for under-served and incomplete schools, linked to immediate expansion of multi-grade teaching in smaller schools.

Assessing the Feasibility of Resourcing EFA Implementation

A key consideration of the scenario described above is ensuring that the resources needed for implementation are feasible within Government's broader macro-economic prospects. The macro-economic projections are set out in Table 3.1 and in more detail in Table H of Annex 5, based on a reasonably conservative forward projection of MTEF 2003-5 figures and projections of GDP growth and public expenditure share of GDP.

Table 3.1: Education Recurrent Spending Projections 2001/15 (Riels Million)
	2001	2005	2010	2015
Primary Policy Financing Scenario	256,876	487,303	783,996	963,703
projections of GDP growth and public expenditure share of GDP. Source: EFA National Plan, 2003-2015

» Topic List
	EFA Policy and Strategy Scenario
	EFA Policy, Strategy And Financing Assumptions
	The Primary Financing Policy Scenario