Cambodia's population of approximately 13 million people, as projected from the 1998 Census, has a unique age-related distribution that reflects the nation's tragic losses of life during the Khmer Rouge period of the 1970s and ensuing civil war. The age-profile and sex-profile are unusual, as illustrated in the population pyramid from the national Census in 1998.

Population growth rates are declining slowly from 2.7 per cent p.a. in 1990 to an estimated 2.5 per cent p.a. in 1998, due to continued high child mortality, low life expectancy and high fertility rates. Fertility rates rose in the early nineties as Cambodian family life settled down after civil strife, but are gradually declining. At current rates, the population will rise from a current 11.4 million to around 14 million by 2005. Population growth will be highest in rural areas (urban TFR 4.2, rural TFR 5.3), contributing to stubbornly high poverty incidence.

The education sector development plans are directly responsive to current demographic patterns and projections over the period 2002-2015 based on the 1998 census. It is projected that the primary school-age population of 2,175,668 (1,104,380 boys and 1,071,288 girls) in 2000 (Annex 3: Age-Related Population and Projections 1998-2013) will drop to a low of 2,018,500 (1,024,252 boys and 994,248 girls) by 2005, then increase steadily thereafter. By 2008, the 6-11 school-age population will have increased to beyond the 2000 levels.

The same projected decrease in the 6-11 age-group will flow through to the lower secondary then upper secondary school populations, with a lag of 3-5 years, such that the peak in the 12-14 cohort, as projected for 2004, declines steadily to 2009, then increases until reaching the 2004 levels again in 2012. These projections are illustrated in figure 1.2. The medium-term aspects of the action plan will include efficiency measures (e.g. double shifting of classroom and teacher use) to accommodate the overage bulge in primary enrolment and avoid excessive classroom construction

This demographic outlook, with a 20 per cent population rise over ten years, will fuel demand for education services and jobs. The 0-14 age population is around 42 per cent of the population and is likely to grow by around 1 - 1.5 million in ten years, with greatest demand in rural areas. Increased pressures on existing primary education services and demand for expanded secondary education provision are becoming evident. Specifically targeted education programs to improve the social and economic circumstances of women are pressing, given that women represent around 52% of the population and have higher life expectancy rates. Achieving an effective balance between accommodating growing education service demand and improved quality and effectiveness will be the critical challenge over the next decade.

There are few serious geographical barriers to efficient access and service delivery. Population density is around 64 people per km2 (compared with the Lao PDR at 19 and Vietnam at 210 per km2). Often severe annual flooding and variable road infrastructure represent the major service delivery constraints. This was evident during the severe flooding of 2000. Most of the 5,000 villages in the country have a primary school, although almost half do not offer full primary schooling from grades 1 - 6. There are wide disparities between urban and rural areas in access and quality of basic education services. A much smaller proportion of rural villages has a lower secondary or upper secondary school in the village. These access barriers contribute to high repetition and dropout rates in the primary grades and less progression to secondary schools.

Better coverage of primary education in recent years has contributed to improved use of school facilities. Primary school sizes have risen from 350 to around 400 in recent years. Secondary school sizes are around 700. For primary and secondary levels, pupil-teacher ratios (PTR) are around 52 and 22 respectively (compared to Lao PDR 28 and 15). A rationalisation and efficiency gain for secondary education staffing deployment policy is a pressing issue. The recruitment and retention of trained teachers for schools in remote areas remains a critical problem. A priority will be to formulate and implement new and more efficient staff deployment guidelines, including targeted incentives for teaching staff in remote areas and to redeploy non-teaching staff back to the classroom.

This demographic outlook, with a 20 per cent population rise over ten years, will fuel demand for education services and jobs. The 0-14 age population is around 42 per cent of the population and is likely to grow by around 1 - 1.5 million in ten years, with greatest demand in rural areas. Increased pressures on existing primary education services and demand for expanded secondary education provision are becoming evident. Specifically targeted education programs to improve the social and economic circumstances of women are pressing, given that women represent around 52% of the population and have higher life expectancy rates. Achieving an effective balance between accommodating growing education service demand and improved quality and effectiveness will be the critical challenge over the next decade.

There are few serious geographical barriers to efficient access and service delivery. Population density is around 64 people per km2 (compared with the Lao PDR at 19 and Vietnam at 210 per km2). Often severe annual flooding and variable road infrastructure represent the major service delivery constraints. This was evident during the severe flooding of 2000. Most of the 5,000 villages in the country have a primary school, although almost half do not offer full primary schooling from grades 1 - 6. There are wide disparities between urban and rural areas in access and quality of basic education services. A much smaller proportion of rural villages has a lower secondary or upper secondary school in the village. These access barriers contribute to high repetition and dropout rates in the primary grades and less progression to secondary schools.

Better coverage of primary education in recent years has contributed to improved use of school facilities. Primary school sizes have risen from 350 to around 400 in recent years. Secondary school sizes are around 700. For primary and secondary levels, pupil-teacher ratios (PTR) are around 52 and 22 respectively (compared to Lao PDR 28 and 15). A rationalisation and efficiency gain for secondary education staffing deployment policy is a pressing issue. The recruitment and retention of trained teachers for schools in remote areas remains a critical problem. A priority will be to formulate and implement new and more efficient staff deployment guidelines, including targeted incentives for teaching staff in remote areas and to redeploy non-teaching staff back to the classroom.